by Jarret Wollstein, editor
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With stock markets now displaying some of the highest volatility ever, where can you invest for consistent high returns year-after-year? One good alternative is commodity and international Exchange Trade Funds (ETF). As you know if you’ve been reading IIR for even a few months, we strongly recommend investing in commodities, international stocks, and foreign currencies, which have been soaring while the dollar has been plummeting.
ETFs provide an easy and profitable way for the average investor to invest in commodities, without having to set up a commodity or currency account (which requires a minimum of $10,000). Here are some examples of the huge one-year returns from top-performing commodity and currency ETFs:
• Oil Services Holders Trust (OIH), + 54% (5 yr., +289%)
• Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) +46% (5 yr., +255%)
• Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock ETF (VWO) + 55% (5 yr, +115%)
• iShares Singapore Index Fund (EWS) + 54% (5 yr., + 283%)
• iShare Brazil Index Fund (EWZ) + 87% (5 yr., +1,135%)
• iShares FTSE China 25 Index Fund (FXI) +120% (5 yr., +248%)
• iShares Korea Index Fund (EWY) + 45% (5 yr., +271%)
• iShares Hong Kong (EWH) +48% (5yr., +182%)
What is an ETF?
An Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) is an investment company which invests in a particular market sector, a specific group of stocks, or even commodities or currencies. When the underlying investments go up, your ETF shares go up. When the underlying investments go down, your ETF shares go down. Thus, ETFs usually closely track the performance of what they invest in. An Exchange Traded Fund is
similar to a mutual fund or index fund, in that many ETFs enable you to invest in a variety of different
investments for one low fee. For instance, one ETF might invest in dozens of different energy
companies.
Thus while you may not be able to afford to buy shares in 30 different energy companies, you almost certainly will be able to afford to buy shares of an energy ETF. Like mutual funds, ETFs also provide you with diversification, while enabling you to select types of investments which can beat the
market. ETFs also give you a certain degree of protection from risk:
Even if one or a few stocks which an ETF invests in perform poorly, others are likely to perform better,
minimizing your risk of huge losses. Also, like mutual funds, ETFs enable you to control your cost and risks. With ETFs, you can place “limit buy” and “limit sell” orders (which limit your initial cost and enable you to set minimum selling prices), and automatic stop-losses. This is often not possible with mutual funds.
ETFs and mutual funds do have one big disadvantage compared to stocks:
Returns are less than those for top-performing individual stocks. That’s one reason why you probably
should have both in your portfolio.
Differences between mutual funds & ETFs
Although ETFs are similar to mutual and index funds, there are also some major differences:
Difference #1: Trade any time. You can only buy and sell mutual and index funds during normal market hours, Monday-Friday. Some even require you to own shares for months before you are allowed to sell them. However, you can trade most ETFs 24-hours-a-day, 365 days-a-year. That’s a huge advantage when markets are moving quickly.
Difference #2: Lower entry costs. You can buy ETF shares for as little as $200, compared to the thousands of dollars needed to buy shares in mutual funds and index funds.
Difference #3: Lower transaction fees. Most mutual funds pile on the fees. There are fees for buying, fees for selling, and even fees to compensate the mutual fund for its marketing expenses. ETFs don’t usually charge any of these fees.
Difference #4: Lower management fees. ETF annual management fees are a fraction of those charged by most mutual funds. For example, the Barclays i- Share S&P 500 ETF charges .09% a year in fees, versus twice that much for the Vanguard 500 Index Fund.
Difference #5: Easier Asset Management. You can buy a variety of different ETFs – stock, bond and commodity, for instance – in just one, online brokerage account;
then track your accounts in that one account. If you buy several mutual funds, you will have to set up several different brokerage accounts, unless all of the mutual funds are sold by the same vendor.
Difference #6: Greater Transparency. ETFs are openly traded on exchanges, with publicly-available bid/ask spreads. In contrast, mutual funds have to be purchased at set prices after
the U.S. stock market closes, creating the possibility of excessive bid/asked spreads and even fraud.
Difference #7: You Can Short – Sell ETFs. Short-sales – in which you technically “borrow” shares and then sell them (replacing them later), is not possible with most mutual funds.
While short-sales are risky (your risk is unlimited if the market goes against you), they are useful trading tools for advanced traders.
In additional to these differences, ETFs have these further advantages over most mutual funds and stocks:
• International Reach. ETFs make it easy to invest in commodity stocks in China . . . energy companies in South America . . . and banks in Europe.
• Sector Concentration. If you think technology stocks are great and want to save yourselves
the trouble of massive research, just pick a high-returning technology ETF.
• Easy investment in Treasury Bills and municipal bonds. There are many ETFs that specialize in these investments.
• Multiply Your Returns. There are also ETFs designed to go up twice as fast as the underlying index they track.
Major ETFs
There are now thousands of different Exchange Traded Funds throughout the world, and over 300 in the U.S. alone. Exchange Traded Funds have grown from virtually zero in the 1990s to over one thousand today, with combined assets of over $500 billion.
Here are some of the major sponsors of Exchange Traded Funds:
Barclays iShares. With over 100 ETFs with hundreds of billions in assets, Barclays is one of the largest ETF vendors. Most of Barclay’s ETFs are based on equity and fixed-income stocks which are listed by vendors, such as S&P, Russell, Dow Jones, and Goldman Sachs. This makes Barclays the standard for the ETF industry.
Claymore. Claymore issues a number of creative ETFs, including one fund – Claymore/Zacks Yield Hog ETF (CVY) which aims to beat Dow Jones returns. Another interesting Claymore fund is their BNY BRIC ETF (EEB), which invests in U.S.- listed ADRs of companies based
in Brazil, Russia, India and China. An ADR is an American Depository Receipt of ownership in shares of a foreign company trading on a U.S. stock exchange.
PowerShares. PowerShares ETFs are designed to out-perform similar ETFs offered by other vendors. PowerShares has also been appointed by NASDAQ as the sponsor of the widely-followed Cubes (QQQQ) index, which tracks the Nasdaq 100 index, which is heavily-
dominated by technology stocks.
ProFunds Advisors. This ETF-issuer specializes in funds designed to match or out-perform the stock indices like the DOW and S&P 500. ProFunds also has ETFs designed to go up, when the underlying indices go down; essentially bear-market ETFs.
Rydex Instruments. Rydex ETFs are unusual since they are weighted equally for each stock in their portfolio, as opposed to the usual practice of weighing ETFs by the market capitalization of the stocks. In other words, if Rydex buys $20 million worth of one stock in a particular ETF, they will buy $20 million worth of all other stocks in that ETF, giving each stock “equal weight” in the value of the ETF. Rydex equally-weighted ETFs include their S&P 500 Equal-Weighted ETF (RSP), Energy ETF (RYE), and Technology ETF (RTM). A number of Rydex ETFs are designed to double the performance of the underlying securities. Rydex has received a five-star rating from Morningstar.
State Street Global Advisors. State Street created the first U.S. ETF, the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY). They now issue dozens of ETFs, with new ones added all the time.
Vanguard. Vanguard has become internationally famous for the large variety of ETFs that they issue. Their fees are among the lowest in the industry.
How to Invest
With hundreds of different Exchange Traded Funds to choose from, selecting one can be a difficult
task. Here are some suggestions:
1. Be clear on your investment objectives. The first question you need to ask yourself before making any investment, is what are your investment goals. Are you looking for steady income? High appreciation? Consistent returns? An insurance policy for recession? Before you can pick an ETF, you need to be clear about your financial goals. Once you have decided what your goals are, you will almost certainly be able to find an ETF designed to help you achieve them.
For instance, if you are looking for steady income, you may want to invest in ETFs heavily-invested
in dividend stocks. If you are looking for high appreciation, carefully examine the performance of the highest appreciating ETFs currently. If you want an insurance policy for recession, consider ETFs
that go up when equity markets go down.
2. Research any ETFs you are interested in. See what information is available on major financial websites, such as Fortune.com, Businessweek.com, YahooFinance.com and Big-Charts.com. Also be sure to look at recent news
3. Only invest in ETFs that have been going up for both the last two years and the last six months. The two-year record gives you a reasonably long-term trend. Any ETF that isn’t selling for significantly more now (say 50% to 100%) than it was two years ago, is not worth investing in, in my opinion.
Similarly, you don’t want to buy shares while the price is declining. Wait until it bottom’s out and then purchase.
4. Diversify by investing in several types of ETFs. Although buying shares of a single ETF can provide you with significant diversification (for instance a metals ETF might invest in several
dozen different metals stocks), you should still not put all of your eggs in one ETF basket.
Thus you might consider investing in a commodity ETF . . . and an energy ETF . . . and an ETF based on the Indian economy.
5. Buy several different foreign ETFs. If you favor investing internationally, I recommend you invest in ETFs from several different countries – such as India, and Brazil, and Australia.
This will give you an important hedge against problems in a single country or region of the world. For instance, recently, British investments took a hit because of problems in the sub-prime mortgage
markets in that country. And in the 1990’s, Mexican investments were devastated in a matter of days when the peso was devalued.
6. Compare ETFs with mutual funds, index funds, and other alternative investments. Although ETFs have distinct advantages over most mutual funds and index funds, that doesn’t mean they are always the best investment. We all have limited funds, and it pays to shop around.
7. Watch your investments carefully. The days of “invest and forget” for long periods of time are over. You should check on how your ETF shares are performing at least once a week, if not daily. If you don’t like what you see, SELL.
The in/out cost of buying and selling ETF shares is not very much compared to your investment,
and how much you could lose if markets suddenly turn against you.
8. Use automatic stop-losses. As is the case with stocks, we strongly recommend that you put automatic stop-losses on all of your ETF positions, to protect yourself from sudden downturns in the market.
You will need to adjust your stop-loss figures, depending upon the type of ETF that you buy. Thus ETFs based on highly volatile investments – such as currencies and commodities – should have stop-losses set at 25% or 35% below the most recent daily high, as opposed to our normal 15%.
ETFs which have lower volatility, such as those based upon large baskets of Blue Chip stocks,
could have stop-losses at our normal 15% or even less.
9. If you have large amounts of capital to invest, get a professional investment advisor.
If your investments total $100,000 or more, the few thousand you might pay a professional
investment advisor will be well worth the cost. Ask family members and friends for names of advisors they have used and trust. Shop around for a professional you are comfortable with.
10. Don’t make ETFs your only investment. You should also keep at least 30% to 50% of your funds in cash and cash-equivalents, such as CDs, foreign-currency accounts, and precious metals.
Also consider investing in top-performing individual stocks in sectors you like, plus bullion, gold, silver, options, foreign currencies, and — when the market bottoms out — real estate.
Recommended ETFs
Prices are as of market close, 9-28-07. Because of high market volatility, we recommend that stop-losses at 25%, rather than our usual 15%.
Note: This is the end of the article for non-paying readers. I hope you’ve learned something new about ETF’s, and I hope you make lots of money from them. Specific ETF recommendations, along with great stock recommendations, are available for paying subscribers. To find out more about how to subscribe so that you can get hard-hitting analysis and advice month after month, click here or go to TheInvestorReport.com